In some parts of central Paris, the sound of children playing in courtyards has grown rare, replaced by the steady rumble of rolling suitcases on cobbled streets.

Neighborhood bakeries that once bustled with familiar faces now cater largely to tourists, while apartments that were home to families for generations sit empty, or have been transformed into short-term rentals.

The city's historic charm remains, but its streets feel increasingly transient — a reflection of a significant demographic shift.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, or INSEE, the population of Paris Intramuros, the city's historic core, declined by 0.9 percent between 2021 and 2022. This continues a trend that has seen the city's permanent residents dwindle over the decades.

From a peak of more than 2.8 million people in the 1950s, the population has fallen to just over 2.1 million today. The reasons are multifaceted, driven by rising costs, aging residents, and a housing market that prioritizes short-term stays and luxury investments over long-term homes.

One of the key drivers of this population decline is the high cost of living in Paris.

Consistently ranked as one of the most expensive cities in the world, Paris has become increasingly unaffordable for middle- and working-class families.

The cost of housing is particularly prohibitive. Limited new construction, combined with high demand, has driven prices to levels that many residents cannot sustain.

In response, families seeking larger, more affordable homes have moved to suburban areas such as Essonne, Val-de-Marne, and Seine-Saint-Denis. These suburbs, which offer more spacious housing at significantly lower prices, have become a practical alternative for young families looking to balance quality of life with affordability.

Shrinking residential core

The availability of housing within Paris Intramuros has also diminished due to competition from non-residential uses.

Many properties in the city center have been converted into office space, or purchased as second homes by international buyers. These homes often remain empty for much of the year, contributing to the city's decreasing population.

Short-term rental platforms like Airbnb have further exacerbated the housing crisis. Thousands of apartments that could have housed long-term residents are now used for short-term stays, reducing the number of homes available to the city's permanent population. While regulations have been introduced to curb this practice, they have not yet fully addressed the issue.

Another factor is the aging population of Paris. Many older residents remain in their homes long after family members have moved out, leaving large properties underutilized. A three-bedroom apartment that once housed a family of five may now accommodate only one or two individuals, contributing to a structural population decline, even as the number of housing units remains constant.

Sebastien Oliveau, director of MSH Paris-Saclay and a geographer and demographer, explains that this decline is largely concentrated within Paris itself. Despite its reputation as an international hub, various factors are contributing to a shift in population dynamics that favor the surrounding regions.

Oliveau says competition for housing is one of the most significant reasons for Paris's population decline. Limited new construction in the city has created a situation where existing housing is often repurposed into office space. This displacement reduces the number of homes available to residents. Additionally, there has been a growing trend of second-home ownership, particularly among international buyers. These second homes are not used for permanent residency, further reducing the number of full-time inhabitants.

Affordability is another major factor, says Oliveau.

"Paris remains one of the most expensive cities globally, and many families, especially young ones, struggle to find larger, affordable housing," he said.

Families with children often leave Paris for more spacious and reasonably priced suburban areas, such as Hauts-de-Seine or Val-de-Marne. This trend is driven by the high cost of living and the lack of affordable housing within the city.

Migration patterns further influence the city's demographics. Oliveau observes that while Paris continues to attract young people, particularly students, their presence in the city is often temporary. Many of them eventually relocate to the suburbs or other regions due to economic and lifestyle considerations. Although these young arrivals bring fresh energy to Paris, the simultaneous outflow of residents results in a net loss of population.

Suburban shift

While the population of Paris Intramuros is shrinking, the Ile-de-France (Greater Paris) region, which surrounds the city, continues to grow. This reflects a redistribution of population rather than an outright loss. Improved transport links, driven by projects like Grand Paris, have made suburban living more attractive. Efficient metro, tram, and train networks now allow suburban residents to commute to central Paris as quickly as people can from some inner-city neighborhoods.

This shift is fundamentally changing the dynamics of the region, with suburbs increasingly seen as extensions of the city itself. Oliveau notes that areas like Courbevoie are now effectively viewed as part of Paris due to their seamless public transport connections.

Michael Raymond, a 62-year-old grocery shop owner, reflects on the changing face of the city.

"When you look around, it doesn't feel like our Paris anymore — it's become a postcard for the wealthy," he told China Daily. "Apartments that were once lively and full of residents are now locked up, owned by people who only come for a few weeks a year. So many places are rented out on Airbnb instead of being available for long-term tenants."

The population decline in Paris Intramuros is unlikely to change any time soon. Experts predict modest decreases in the coming years, driven by the same economic, structural, and demographic forces that have shaped the city's trajectory for decades.

Oliveau's insights provide a nuanced understanding of Paris's population trends. While the city remains a global attraction, its high costs and housing challenges are reshaping its demographic landscape. Suburbs are increasingly accommodating residents who might have once lived in the city, reflecting broader economic and social dynamics that extend beyond Paris's borders.