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金融時報:兩會熱點問題大盤點
What to watch for at the annual session of China’s parliament

[ 2014-03-04 09:40] 來源:中國日報網     字號 [] [] []  
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Each year in early March, thousands of delegates to?China’s official lawmaking and top political advisory bodies gather in Beijing to rubber-stamp laws and policies decided by the country’s ruling Communist party.

And every year there is discussion about whether or not these gatherings of China’s National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress remain just a political pageant, or if the party is allowing more debate and consultation to creep into the process of “democracy with Chinese characteristics”.

The opening of the NPC in the morning on March 5 will see Premier Li read out his first government work report since he took office a year ago. The three-hour speech, in front of thousands of delegates and media in the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square, is said to be so gruelling that ageing Premiers in the past have had to be trained for hours to stand and read aloud without stopping to drink or take breaks.

The government’s 2014 annual budget will also be released in the morning on March 5.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, will give a press conference that will be closely watched for hints about China’s plans for interest rate liberalisation and capital account opening.

On March 13 the NPC will hold its closing ceremony and then Premier Li will greet the public and the world for the premier’s annual press conference. This highly scripted event provides the key talking points that the government wants to convey to the nation and the outside world.

This year’s sessions will be watched especially closely as they are the first to be held since President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang formally took the reins of government at last year’s meetings. While the unveiling of any radical new policy agenda is unlikely, the nation will be watching for progress on the key reforms outlined by the Party during two important meetings late last year.

Growth targets:?Of particular interest will be the figures Beijing announces as its growth targets for 2014. Most analysts expect the government to leave these unchanged from last year by announcing a growth target of 7.5 per cent, an inflation target of less than 3.5 per cent and?M2 money supply?growth of 13 per cent.

Any changes to these figures, which should be announced at the opening of the NPC on March 5, could provide a useful insight into how robust the leadership thinks the economy will be this year and how willing they are to accept lower rates of growth as they try to reform the country’s economic model.

Real estate policy:?After years of ineffectual attempts to rein in overheated growth in the country’s booming property markets, there are some signs that China’s new leaders are preparing their own policies to bring down prices in residential markets, a perennial source of discontent among the country’s growing urban population.

The annual government report from the premier is often used to announce such policies.

Ethnic policies:?Vicious knife attacks?carried out by ethnic separatists from the rebellious Chinese region of Xinjiang on Saturday night left 29 innocent bystanders dead and 140 more injured. The attacks have thrown a spotlight on China’s repressive policies towards ethnic minorities and highlighted the simmering discontent among increasingly radicalised populations in the vast western stretches of the country.

The most likely response at the forthcoming political meetings will be expressions of resolve to “strike hard” and retaliate with “iron resolve” but look for any subtle change in wording in references to ethnic policy or any suggestion that China’s own policies may be responsible for the rise in violent separatist attacks.

State-owned companies reform:?The government has said it wants to open up the state-owned sector to greater investment from private companies, but so far most moves in this direction appear to have been largely symbolic. Investors at home and abroad will be looking for signs of more serious commitment to reductions in state ownership in key areas of the country including energy, telecoms, transport and finance.

Pollution:?Continued?shocking levels of pollution?across the country are expected to be high on the agenda at the meetings, especially after Beijing has just emerged from nearly two weeks of thick choking smog that prompted rare expressions of anger in China’s own state media.

The skies over Beijing traditionally clear for the opening of the political meetings as the party takes cars off the road, shuts down factories and uses artificial rain to make sure that nothing spoils the picture of a grand, harmonious and efficient governing structure. But even if the delegates themselves probably will not have to breathe the usually poisonous air, government plans to deal with the issue are still expected to be high on the agenda.

Foreign relations:?Rising tension with Japan is likely to get at least a mention during the political sessions and Chinese warnings of heightened “Japanese militarism” could well be used to justify expected double-digit increases in China’s military budget.

Foreign policy analysts and governments throughout the Pacific will be watching to see if Beijing tones down or ramps up the rhetoric directed at Tokyo and also its?neighbours bordering the disputed South China Sea.

Local government debt:?The huge burden of debt built up by local governments across the country will be addressed at the meetings and particularly in Premier Li’s work report and in the annual budget. Local governments are likely to be given the go-ahead to issue more municipal bonds to allow them to better balance their books and reduce their reliance on borrowing from China’s state-owned banks.

Shadow banking:?The rise of China’s huge, shadowy and largely unregulated alternative financial sector?is a source of great concern to China’s leaders and to global investors alike, and the topic is likely to be addressed during the two meetings. New regulations and perhaps the assigning of responsibility for regulating the issue could both emerge during the 10 days of political jawboning.

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每年的三月上旬,全國兩會都會在北京召開,數千名代表齊聚一堂共商國事,制定政策。

每年,社會上都流傳著這樣兩種聲音:兩會的召開僅僅就是一場政治聚會;兩會的召開是社會主義民主政治的重要體現,執政黨以此聽取廣大代表意見推進民主進程。


今年的人民代表大會備受關注,因為這是習近平主席和李克強總理自去年上任以來第一次代表大會。盡管我們無法具體了解所有新的基本政策規劃,我們卻能夠看到自去年以來國家在大項重點改革中取得的進步。


3月5日上午,全國人民代表大會將在人民大會堂召開。會上,李克強總理將宣讀2013年度政府工作報告,這是他任期第一年的政府工作總結。在代表和媒體記者面前做3小時的報告是一件相當煎熬的事情,以往,年邁的總理不得不為此提前訓練,鍛煉長時間站立和做報告中不喝水休息的能力。


同時,當天早上還將公布2014年度政府財政預算。中國人民銀行行長周小川將召開記者發布會答記者問,解答關于利率市場化和資本賬戶開放的問題。


全國人大將于3月13日閉幕。屆時,李克強總理將召開新聞發布會,會見國內外媒體代表,解讀會議關鍵點,向世界傳達中國聲音。


經濟增長目標

人們最關注的問題就是2014年的經濟增長目標。多數專家分析今年的目標將于上一年度相同,經濟增長7.5個百分點,通脹指數控制在3.5個百分點以下,M2貨幣供應量增長13個百分點。在大會開幕當天,上述數據是否發生改變將反映國家對于經濟實力的信心是否充足,是否愿意全面推進經濟轉型,接受較低的經濟增長。


房地產政策

每年的政府工作報告中都會提及與房地產有關的政策。盡管經過多方調控,中國房地產價格依舊持續走高。有跡象表明,中國新一屆領導集體將制定政策,降低居民住宅價格,消解長久以來城市居民的不滿。


民族政策


3月1日晚,昆明發生持刀砍人惡性事件,目前事件造成29人死亡,140余人受傷,初步判定事件由新疆民族分裂勢力策劃。這場襲擊引發人們對于中國少數民族政策的關注,同時突出表現了中國西部地區激進分子人數不斷增長,不滿情緒不斷積聚。在即將召開的會議上,代表意見將傾向“嚴厲打擊”,同時代表們也會對民族政策進行修訂,及時應對已經暴露的問題。


國有企業改革


政府希望開放國有企業,吸引更多民間資本,可惜目前大部分舉措未發揮實質性作用。與此同時,海內外投資商希望看到在能源、通信、交通和金融等重點領域出臺更多優惠政策。


環境污染


環境污染是此次會議重點關注的問題之一,特別是本次會議召開前兩周,北京剛剛歷經了持續霧霾天氣。據國內媒體報道,霧霾天讓許多人對現階段環境水平表示不滿。會議召開期間,由于車輛限制、工廠暫時停工和使用人工降雨,藍天白云交相輝映,確保整個會議不受環境污染的影響。然而,即便空氣質量優化,代表們感受不到污染,積極謀劃解決應對環境問題的方案依舊是本次會議的重點。


外交政策


兩會中一定會涉及中日兩國的緊張局勢,為應對日本軍國主義,中國軍費開支呈兩位數增長態勢十分合理。外交政策專家和太平洋國家將密切關注中國如何應對與日本等鄰國發生的領土爭端問題,是采取強硬政策還是溫和政策?


地方政府債務


會上會報告地方政府債務情況,這一數據在政府工作報告和財政預算中都將涉及。地方政府很可能繼續發行市政債券來平衡開支,減少對國有銀行的依賴。


影子銀行系統


中國政府和全球投資者十分關注中國日益龐大的缺乏監管的非銀行金融機構,這也是此次兩會關注的焦點之一。新政策以及管理機構也許會在接下來的十天中誕生。
(譯者:吳溦 編輯:齊磊)

 

 
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