Consumption versus investment
Donna H. J. Kwok,
Greater China economist for HSBC
Consumption versus investment: Risks to China's long-term economic health greater if it doesn't consume more.
Main points
It will take a further 10 years to create a more consumption-led economic model but the process has to unfold gradually.
At current rate of growth, China's consumption will reach Western levels only by 2070, which is too slow.
Jian Chang,
Director, China economist, at Barclays
Consumption versus investment: Significant room for greater consumption and much more market-led economy.
Main points
Investment has been running at unsustainable levels.
Income distribution is key to boosting consumption since the pie cannot continue to grow much bigger.
Louis Kuijs,
China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland
Consumption versus investment: China needs more balanced growth, including greater consumption.
Main points
Heavy investment-led model has served the country well but it is not possible for it to continue.
Previous administration was right to focus on welfare reform.
Hans Hendrischke,
Professor of Chinese business and management at the University of Sydney Business School
Consumption versus investment: Sustainable consumption can only be achieved through investment in upgrading industry.
Main points
Consumption is not main problem since it is higher than in many other countries.
Danger of simplifying debate since it is not an either-or.
Zhu Tian, Professor of economics at CEIBS
Consumption versus investment: No such thing as consumption-led growth.
Main points
Boosting consumption only valid when economy has unused capacity and not for building capacity.
Household surveys under-report consumption in China.
Michael Spence, Professor of economics at the Leonard N. Stern School of Business at New York University
Consumption versus investment: Higher levels of consumption are an important part of restructuring the China economy.
Main points
Achieving supply-side shifts through investment are not sufficient on their own for economic development since demand factors also important.
Credit expansion and tax cuts not the right way forward.
Junheng Li,
Founder of J.L. Warren Capital
Consumption versus investment: Should not be seen as an all or nothing binary question.
Main points
Domestic consumption is too low.
Current economic model built on misallocation of resources by state-owned banks which affects the quality of investment.
Tomas Sedlacek,
Chief macroeconomic strategist for CSOB bank
Consumption versus investment: China should stick to its investment-led model.
Main points
Domestic consumption is fine so long as it is not based on debt.
Credit means faith in Latin and if you rely too much on it, it can destabilize the economy.